ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 eventualities – What are New Zealand semi-final probabilities wanting like after three losses?

With 13 matches to go within the league stage of World Cup 2023, right here is how the groups stack up within the race to the semi-finals.

Performed: 6, Pts: 12, NRR: 1.405
Remaining matches: vs SL, SA, Neth

With 12 factors already within the bag and three video games nonetheless to return, India are virtually via to the semi-finals. One other win will verify qualification, however even when they lose all three, Afghanistan should win their three remaining video games, whereas New Zealand and Australia should win two every. If these three groups have greater web run charges than India, then they, together with South Africa, can qualify forward of India.

South Africa
Performed: 7, Pts: 12, NRR: 2.290
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Afg

South Africa have as many factors as India however have performed one further sport. Two extra factors will verify qualification, however even with 12, their distinctive NRR ought to hold them protected.

Performed: 6, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.970
Remaining matches: vs Eng, Afg, Ban

After a gradual begin, Australia have come into their very own with 4 wins on the trot. Three extra wins will verify the qualification, however two may also do if a type of comes in opposition to Afghanistan. Provided that additionally they play Bangladesh, who’re already out of the event, Australia are favourites to qualify.

New Zealand
Performed: 7, Pts: 8, NRR: 0.484
Remaining matches: vs Pak, SL

New Zealand gained 4 video games in the beginning however misplaced their subsequent three matches. The massive loss to South Africa has additionally introduced their NRR crashing down, whereas the quite a few accidents are doing their probabilities no favours.

In the event that they win their final two and end on 12, New Zealand will nonetheless have a superb opportunity of qualifying, however a defeat on Saturday in opposition to Pakistan will put each the groups on eight factors every from as many video games, whereas a defeat by 84 or extra runs (in a chase of 301) will push them under Pakistan on NRR. Afghanistan will get to eight too in the event that they beat Netherlands on Friday, whereas Sri Lanka may also be within the combine.

All of this implies the subsequent ten days might be essential for all these groups. New Zealand’s final sport is in opposition to Sri Lanka, and even when they win that one after shedding to Pakistan, it may nonetheless come right down to web run charges.

Performed: 6, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.718
Remaining matches: vs Neth, Aus, SA

Afghanistan are the one workforce apart from these within the high 4 that may nonetheless get to 12 factors. Nonetheless, two of their three remaining video games are in opposition to Australia (in Mumbai) and South Africa (in Ahmedabad). Two wins in these three matches will hold them within the combine if the highest 4 groups do not all get to 12 factors. A win on Friday in opposition to Netherlands will take them degree with New Zealand on factors, however they may also have to win by a major margin to enhance their web run fee, which is presently a poor -0.718.

Performed: 7, Pts: 6, NRR: -0.024
Remaining matches: vs NZ, Eng

New Zealand’s walloping by South Africa has opened up the factors desk, and one of many groups that would profit is Pakistan. They’re now just one win behind New Zealand, and a victory in opposition to them on Saturday will imply each groups are degree on eight factors from eight video games. Pakistan’s final match might be at Eden Gardens in opposition to bottom-of-the-table England. Relying on different outcomes, Pakistan’s qualification probabilities may hinge on that consequence.

If Pakistan lose on Saturday, their probabilities will cling by a thread: Australia should lose all their matches and keep on eight, whereas different outcomes involving Afghanistan and Sri Lanka should go in Pakistan’s favour as properly.

Sri Lanka
Performed: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -0.275
Remaining matches: vs Ind, Ban, NZ

If Sri Lanka win their three remaining video games, they are going to end on 10, however even then they are going to want different outcomes to go their method. A defeat in opposition to India will imply they will find yourself with a most of eight factors. For them to nonetheless be in competition, a number of different outcomes should work of their favour, but it surely’s nonetheless attainable for a number of as much as seven groups to complete on eight factors, preventing for 2 slots.

Performed: 6, Pts: 4, NRR: -1.277
Remaining matches: vs Afg, Eng, Ind

Netherlands have the identical factors tally as Sri Lanka, however their NRR is far poorer. Wins in all their remaining video games will give them an opportunity, however eight factors is unlikely to chop it for them.

Performed: 6, Pts: 2, NRR: -1.652
Remaining matches: vs Aus, Neth, Pak

England may nonetheless end on eight factors in the event that they win their remaining video games, and be part of the melee if a number of different outcomes align, however with a web run fee that presently stands at -1.652, their greatest wager might be to attempt to make it to the highest seven and qualify for Champions Trophy 2025.

S Rajesh is stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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